# Saturday, February 05, 2011
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NCEP Ensemble Forecast
240 hr. Forecast for February 14 at 4:00 p.m. PST

Although the Pacific jet did expand as anticipated through about January 27, and then retract around January 29, leading to a upper low off the California coast, it wasn't the discontinuous ridge regression which had been hoped for -- or the change in pattern that would open the door to Pacific storms wishing to visit sunny Southern California.

The area did manage to get a bit of rainfall out of the system. Downtown Los Angeles (USC) recorded 0.21 inch on Sunday, bringing the rainfall total for January up to a paltry 0.79 inches, which is more than 2.5 inches below normal for the month. At this point Downtown Los Angeles remains almost 5 inches above normal for the water year (July 1 to June 30), but with each dry day that cushion grows a little smaller. Here's an archived copy of a NWS tabulation of some rainfall totals from last Sunday's storm.

Well, what the MJO couldn't do maybe random influences will. Both the GFS and ECMWF are forecasting a change to a wetter pattern for California around Valentine's Day. This is supported by the NCEP Ensembles, and ESRL/PSD Analog Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts for the 8-14 day period. As this CPC 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook indicates, the chances look the best from Central California, north into Oregon. We'll see!

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.