Los Angeles will end 2007 with precipitation for the water year close to normal, and with the Sierra snowpack at about 60% of normal. However the first week of 2008 may usher in one of the strongest Pacific storms to affect California in some time, and by Monday of next week, precipitation and Sierra snowpack totals may have increased dramatically.

CIRA Blended TPW loops show energy and moisture associated with tropical forcing in Indonesia being transferred into the the mid-latitudes, priming the system. Additional moisture is being drawn into the system from the tropics near Hawaii, and the GFS indicates a tropical connection as the system moves into California.

Details are likely to change as the week progresses, but at this point the storm's forecast parameters are impressive. At its peak, the Van Nuys BUFKIT analysis indicates a low level jet of approximately 50 kts developing, with precipitable water values of 1.2 inches and cloud velocities exceeding 60 kts. Such a scenario -- if the forecast verifies -- could produce extraordinarily heavy, orographically enhanced rainfall in the foothills and mountains, with flash flooding and debris flows possible, particularly in areas that have been recently burned.

Please refer to your local NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE for official forecasts and warnings.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.