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BUFKIT analysis of 12z NAM data for Van Nuys continues to indicate a low level jet of approximately 50 kts developing overnight Friday, with precipitable water values of 1.2 inches and cloud velocities exceeding 60 kts. Such a scenario -- if the forecast verifies -- could produce extraordinarily heavy, orographically enhanced rainfall in the foothills and mountains, with flash flooding and debris flows possible, particularly in areas that have been recently burned.
A new wrinkle, just introduced by the 12z GFS, is a more southerly track of a shortwave progged for mid-week next week, with a chance of rain developing Wednesday into Thursday. We'll see!
Please refer to your local NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE for official forecasts and warnings.
Update 01/06/08 1:00 P.M. Archived copy of a NWS Public Information Statement with preliminary rainfall totals for the ongoing rain event.
Update 01/05/08 9:00 A.M. Rain event progressing more or less as expected with storm totals so far generally ranging from about 1 to 5 inches in the basin and valleys, to 3 to 7 inches or more in the foothills and mountains. San Marcos Pass, near Santa Barbara has recorded nearly 9 inches of rain, and OPIDS Camp, near Mt. Wilson, has recorded about 8 inches of rain. Here is an archived copy of a NWS Public Information Statement with preliminary rainfall totals for the storm, and an AHPS Precipitation Analysis of California precipitation for the 24 hr. period ending 4:00 a.m. this morning.
More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.
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