Models have been trending somewhat wetter with the front approaching Southern California this morning. BUFKIT analysis of 12z data for Van Nuys generates about 0.4 inch rain, starting around noon and ending this evening. At Santa Barbara the generated total is about 0.5 inch, and at LAX about 0.25 inch. Locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms, and on southwest to west facing slopes.

This front is the first of several systems that have been forecast to affect the area over the next week. Model output has been variable regarding the timing and strength of these systems.

According to the models, the system originally forecast for Sunday is still in the works, but has been has been pushed back to Sunday evening or early Monday morning. The !2z NAM and GFS model runs forecast about 1.1 to 1.5 inch at Van Nuys from Sunday evening through Monday. Very strong southerly inflow is forecast with this system, so significantly higher totals are possible on south facing foothill and mountain slopes.

Beyond early next week, the models have been all over the place with some runs forecasting several inches of rain late in the week and other runs almost none at all -- the amount of rain being dependent on the proximity of a strong low to the coast. This morning's GEFS ensembles for next Thursday evening are indicative of the uncertainty. We'll see how the forecast evolves over the next few days.

Update 02/18/09. Here is an archived copy of a NWS Public Information Statement with some rainfall totals for Friday's storm.

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