In a classic case of "be careful what you wish for," Southern California has been awash in a series of storms that rival those of the biggest El Nino years. Coming on top of the rain we've already recorded this week, today's and Thursday's systems appear likely to deliver a combination punch with potentially serious consequences.

Yesterday's vigorous system was characterized by scattered thunderstorms, heavy downpours, and damaging winds. Rainfall amounts generally ranged from about 0.5 inch to 1.0 inch, with some isolated higher amounts. Here's an archived copy of NWS Public Information Statement with preliminary rainfall totals for the period 5:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Tuesday.

Today's frontal system, the fourth in the series since Sunday, is producing heavy rain, strong winds, and the possibility of thunderstorms. More rain is expected than resulted from yesterday's storm. BUFKIT analysis of 18z NAM data for Van Nuys (VNY) indicates about 2 inches of rain today and tonight, with generalized rain rates peaking at about 0.4 inch/hour. Higher localized rainfall rates could occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Here is an archived copy of a NWS Los Angeles Quantitative Precipitation Statement with more detailed information.

Unlike previous systems this week, Thursday's system is forecast to develop a surface low west of Pt. Conception. According to the WRF forecast a multi-centered surface low will develop and deepen into a 972 mb low west to northwest of Pt. Conception. In addition to the usual dynamics associated with such a low, a very strong jet is forecast to be in a position overhead that would maximize system dynamics. The formation of a surface low could also slow the progress of the system, potentially increasing precipitation totals.

Please refer to www.weather.gov/losangeles for the latest warnings and weather information.

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