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18z NAM 48 hr. Total Precipitation
December 17, 2007
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SREF Ensembles have been trending wetter south of Pt. Conception over the next 36 hours with each run. The 15z run indicates >90% chance of the rainfall total exceeding 0.1 inch in the Los Angeles area for the 24 hr. period ending 7:00 a.m. Wednesday.
The last couple of runs of the NAM have also been wetter. An ARL analysis of 18z NAM data generates about 3/4 inch of rain at Los Angeles over the next 48 hours, and a BUFKIT analysis generates about 2/3 inch at Van Nuys. According to these analyses light rain is forecast to begin about 10 p.m. this evening, increase in intensity during the day tomorrow, and taper off early Wednesday morning. We'll see!
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